Answer:
(a)
The estimate was based on the population as it was when the policy was framed
in the year 2000 and assumed that the present trends will continue.
However, the reasons for the estimate going wrong are
(i) the large size of the population in the reproductive
age group. The increase in population will continue for some more years because
high reproductive fertility in the past has resulted in a large proportion of
the population being currently in the reproductive age
group.
(ii) higher fertility due to the unmet need for
contraception. Measures for adoption of contraception are not widely available accessible
and affordable, particularly in the rural areas.
(iii) high desired fertility due to the high Infant
Mortality Rate (IMR). Repeated child births are seen as an insurance against multiple
infant (and child) deaths and accordingly, high infant mortality nullifies all
efforts at reducing fertility
(iv) many girls are married below the age of 18, the
minimum legal age of marriage, resulting in a typical reproductive pattern of
"too early, too frequent, too many".
(b) From this policy I have learnt that to control the population, there
is a need of concerted efforts by both Government and the people.
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